Welcome to the Monthly Skeptics Discussion thread. The goal of this thread is to promote critical discussion and challenge commonly promoted narratives through rigorous debate. It will be posted and stickied every Sunday. Due to the 2 post sticky limit, this thread will not be permanently stickied like the Daily Discussion thread. It may often be taken down to make room for important announcements or news.
Coinbase is probably the easiest and safest way to purchase bitcoins in the U.S. Unlike BitStamp, Coinbase is not an exchange. They act as a counter-party to all customer trades, you buy or sell your bitcoins directly to Coinbase. The buy/sell fee is 1% on top of the buy/sell spread. The bid/ask is usually close to BitStamp where the firm gets its liquidity from. For example, the current bid is at $635.48 and the current ask is $638.07. In addition to this, the firm has daily limits on the amount of bitcoins bought/sold. These limits are not applied on the individual level. Basically Coinbase has a set amount of bitcoins that it is willing to buy or sell every day. During times or high volatility, users may not be able to buy/sell bitcoins until Coinbase decides to ‘’refill’’ their stock. Here’s a good explanation on this issue from their Customer Support:
Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer virtual currency. This means that in order for a transaction to occur, no middle men or central authority is needed. You can send any amount of bitcoins to anyone living anywhere in the world, completely eliminating the need for traditional third parties like banks or money transmitters. The cryptocurrency also allows the bypassing of capital and AML restrictions.
Venture capitalists, such as Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, which invested US$3 million in BitPay, do not purchase bitcoins themselves, but instead fund bitcoin infrastructure that provides payment systems to merchants, exchanges, wallet services, etc. In 2012, an incubator for bitcoin-focused start-ups was founded by Adam Draper, with financing help from his father, venture capitalist Tim Draper, one of the largest bitcoin holders after winning an auction of 30,000 bitcoins, at the time called "mystery buyer". The company's goal is to fund 100 bitcoin businesses within 2–3 years with $10,000 to $20,000 for a 6% stake. Investors also invest in bitcoin mining. According to a 2015 study by Paolo Tasca, bitcoin startups raised almost $1 billion in three years (Q1 2012 – Q1 2015).
The supply of bitcoins grows by the process called “mining” bitcoins. The supply is expected to increase by 10% in 2014 after going up 11.11% last year. The rate of block creation is 6 per hour with each block worth 25 bitcoins (around 25k USD). If more mining power goes online and the block generation increases to 7 blocks per hour for example, the so called “mining difficulty” will go up until the 6 blocks per hour average is reaffirmed. On the other hand if miners generate less coins then the difficulty will go down making it easier to generate new coins. You can read more about the supply of bitcoins here.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued four "Customer Advisories" for bitcoin and related investments. A July 2018 warning emphasized that trading in any cryptocurrency is often speculative, and there is a risk of theft from hacking, and fraud. A February 2018 advisory warned against investing an IRA fund into virtual currencies. A December 2017 advisory warned that virtual currencies are risky because:
Bitcoin mining operations take a lot of effort and power, and the sheer amount of competition makes it difficult for newcomers to enter the race and profit. A new miner would not only need to have adequate computing power and the knowledge to use it to outcompete the competition, but would also need the extensive amount of capital necessary to fund the operations.
With the mark of drug trafficking of the record, the new cryptocurrency was also starting to attract the attention of Wall Street. Wedbush Securities, a little known analyst firm put a forecast of around $98,500 on the price of one bitcoin. The analysts expect bitcoin to rise by 10 to 100 times its current value as the new technology partly replaces traditional payment processors and money transmitters. Bank of America Merrill Lynch wasn’t as optimistic in its forecasts. The Bank’s analysts predict a maximum ‘’fair’’ estimate of bitcoin of $1,300.
Bartering or exchanging bitcoins for anything is also a taxable event. For example, Bob trades 1 bitcoin for a year's worth of hugs. Bob traded or bartered 1 bitcoin for a year's worth of hugs or a service. This is a taxable event. The same is true, if you traded 1 bitcoin for a tangible or intangible object. This even applies if you're trading 1 bitcoin for another bitcoin.
Well, as we already said in the previous chapter, no one can accurately predict the future. From fundamental perspective, a promising technological achievement might end up as a flop, and from technical perspective, the graph just doesn’t behave as it did in the past. The simple truth is that there are no guarantees for any sort of trading. However, a healthy mix of both methodologies will probably yield the best results.
As of November 2017, Bitcoin and other digital currencies are outlawed only in Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ecuador, Kyrgyzstan and Vietnam, with China and Russia being on the verge of banning them as well. Other jurisdictions, however, do not make the usage of cryptocurrencies illegal as of yet, but the laws and regulations can vary drastically depending on the country.
Trading requires daily technical analysis and a sound understanding of trading platforms. I wouldn't recommend this unless you're experienced with eToro or an MT4 platform. That said, there are benefits to bitcoin trading. It gives you the option to quickly scale in and out of positions, and take profits at a desired price. When you trade bitcoin, you can take advantage of daily fluctuations in price. The CFD brokers used for trading are regulated, and your funds are arguably more secure than at an exchange like Coinbase. You will be charged spread (fee) on each trade, but you can execute a buy or sell order quicker. The biggest benefit to trading bitcoin is the limit - it's far easier to open a $100,000 position at a CFD broker than go through stringent checks and buy an equivalent amount on Coinbase.
In 1983, the American cryptographer David Chaum conceived an anonymous cryptographic electronic money called ecash. Later, in 1995, he implemented it through Digicash, an early form of cryptographic electronic payments which required user software in order to withdraw notes from a bank and designate specific encrypted keys before it can be sent to a recipient. This allowed the digital currency to be untraceable by the issuing bank, the government, or any third party.
So is everyone chasing a golden egg laying goose and getting scammed along the way? Not really. There is great potential for making some serious profit when investing with ICOs, but the lack of regulation and security is what we are worried about. Just because the system works doesn’t mean it is working the right way. Yes, in a certain alternative way ICOs are exactly what the whole cryptocurrency world is all about, but security is something that all cryptocurrencies focus on as well. We don’t see this same concept being implemented with ICOs.
Nakamoto is estimated to have mined one million bitcoins before disappearing in 2010, when he handed the network alert key and control of the code repository over to Gavin Andresen. Andresen later became lead developer at the Bitcoin Foundation. Andresen then sought to decentralize control. This left opportunity for controversy to develop over the future development path of bitcoin.